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India ready with indigenous model to predict rainfall

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Hindustan Times
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pIndia is finally ready with an indigenous model to predict long range and seasonal rainfall In the next six months the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology IITM Pune will be able to operationalise a dynamic numerical climate model it has developed to forecast extendedrange rainfall for a timescale of 1520 days after results from the experimental stage were found to be reliablep

pquotFor the first time we have indigenously developed a prediction system that was not available in India The tests have been done the performance of the experimental model was found to be good and can be operationalised We can now forecast rain every five days for 1520 days especially for the agriculture sector which is the mainstay of the economyquot M Rajeevan director IITM told HTp

pIndia Meteorological Department IMD the official agency to disseminate weather forecast will however validate the operationalisation of the model At present the IMD uses statistical model that needs lengthy calculations to make predictions of the southwest monsoonp

pScientists at IITM tasked with improving long range and seasonal scale forecasts 16 days to a season have localised the indigenous model factoring Indian climatic conditions using the Climate Forecast System CFS developed in the USp

pDeveloping the CFSbased Grand Ensemble Prediction System CGEPS is part of the National Monsoon Mission that was launched by the government in 2012 to improve accuracy of monsoon prediction especially since 60 agriculture in India is rainfedp

pUnder the joint IndiaUS collaboration scientists used the National Centers for Environmental PredictionsClimate Forecast System NCEPCFSv2 model for monsoon predictionp

pAs part of the experimental version of the indigenous model IITM has been providing forecasts for the agriculture sector to the IMD that issues advisories to the farmers over the last three yearsp

pquotThe skillful and timely forecasts of intraseasonal monsoon rainfall possess a greater potential utility for agriculture and water resource management In the extended range especially beyond the weather scale twondashthree weeks a single deterministic rainfall forecast is not sufficient thus the user community should also be given probabilistic forecasts that quantify the uncertaintyquot said Atul Kumar Sahai project director National Monsoon Missionp

pSahai added quotThe thumb rule is that before moving from an experimental version of any forecasting system towards operational version its skill should be evaluated in detailquotp

pSuryachandra Rao senior scientist at IITM said after the monsoon mission the model in the next phase will incorporate hydrological forecasting that will help in decisions relating to management of dam water how much water can be released or whether the water can be used to generate hydropowerp

Author: Sustainability Outlook
Calais Document Category: climate change water policy Technology